Government tables 10.5% public pay offer ahead of Dublin summit strike

The proposal would give most public servants cumulative increases of 10.5%, with lower-paid staff receiving more, with increases worth up to 17.8% over the lifetime of the deal. It is understood the agreement would run for just over two and a half years, extending into early 2029.

For 2026, the proposal includes an additional backdated payment of €1,200 or 2%, whichever is greater. Combined with the 2% increase already awarded this year, that would bring pay rises for 2026 to 4% for public servants.

The exact duration of any deal has not yet been agreed. But it could run for between two-and-a-half and three years. It would be likely to be backdated to July when the last agreement expired.

The Government pencilled in €1.2bn for a public sector pay increase for next year but acknowledged that figure was just a starting point for negotiations. It is clear the cost for next year will be significantly above that.

Day-to-day public expenditure this year is €100 billion, of which €34bn, or one-third, is public sector pay. That pay bill covers gardaí, doctors, teachers, nurses and thousands of other State employees, and is also used as a benchmark for pay elsewhere in the economy.

The last agreement, which ran from early 2024 to the middle of this year, granted increases of 10.25% over two and a half years at a cost of €3.6bn. This time the Government has offered 10.5% at a cost of close on €5bn.

One reason the new deal would cost more is growth in staff numbers. The number of public servants increased by 27,000 since the last agreement commenced in early 2024, part of a longer rise from 301,000 in 2015 to 424,000 in 2026 as demand for services grew.

The question for workers is whether the offer will beat inflation. The Central Bank predicts the rise in the cost of living will be 3.4% on average for this year, 3.1% next year and 2% in 2028. It is currently running at 4%. If those projections are correct, the deal would keep public sector pay just ahead of inflation.

Speaking to reporters at Lough Derg on Monday morning, Taoiseach Micheál Martin said he was not calling it a "take it or leave it" offer from the Government's side, but rather "a very substantially improved offer". He said: "I think it meets all the criteria that were identified early on in respect of what would be the needs of a resolution of the issue."

Mr Martin said he "genuinely doesn’t believe there’s a basis for strike action this week", while setting out the need to balance pay with services and recruitment. He said the Government wanted a national pay agreement and a sustainable budget to continue to recruit teachers and nurses and special needs assistants, and many more public servants, gardaí and so forth.

Fórsa deputy general secretary Katie Morgan told members on Monday afternoon that preparations for Thursday's strike were continuing. She said that if there is agreement at the Government Appointed Group, the parties will return to the Workplace Relations Commission, adding: "Only in those circumstances could a deal be reached."

Fórsa general secretary Kevin Callinan had told members on Sunday that talks have been "very difficult". Government sources said they remained hopeful a deal could be reached, but accepted the window to stop Thursday's action was narrowing.

Céim a bhfuil súil léi: D’fhéadfadh an méid seo athrú.

The timing has added urgency because Dublin is preparing to host the largest ever meetings of heads of state or government to take place in Ireland. The summit is expected to draw around 50 leaders, including France's Emmanuel Macron, Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Canada's Mark Carney, alongside NATO head Mark Rutte.

An extensive policing and security operation will come into effect on Tuesday 10 November. The measures will impact those who live, work and study around the Convention Centre, the National Gallery and on routes between Dublin Airport, Casement Aerodrome at Baldonnel and city hotels, with road closures, diverted public transport and delays expected on 10 to 13 November.

The Taoiseach said this week's operation would be the largest ever security operation in the history of the State, bigger than even the visit of an American president, and that he was confident the events would be fruitful and productive. Around 350 staff set to be involved in the hosting were reported as potentially impacted by a strike.

The immediate next step is whether the Government-Appointed Group can broker enough agreement for the sides to return to the Workplace Relations Commission. Union sources said a strike could still be called off as late as Wednesday, but on Monday night there was "no feeling of optimism". It is not yet known whether unions will recommend the offer to members.