Pay talks resume at WRC on €5bn offer with Thursday strike still on

At the centre of the talks is a Government pay offer worth 10.5%, with larger increases for lower-paid public servants worth up to 17.8% over the lifetime of the deal. The two sides resumed discussions with the Government-Appointed Group after the Government tabled that offer. Unions have said they are looking for a better deal than the last agreement.

The proposal includes an additional backdated payment in 2026 of €1,200 or 2%, whichever is greater. Combined with the 2% increase already awarded this year, that would bring pay rises for 2026 to 4% for public servants. It is understood the agreement would run for just over two and a half years, extending into early 2029.

The duration has been a point of sensitivity for unions. It is understood the original proposed timeframe of the agreement was for three years, something which was a source of concern for unions, who felt such a duration would require a greater pay uplift. Some union sources expressed concern the offer could not be guaranteed to cover inflation over the course of the agreement and said they still anticipated some improvement to the pay element.

The cost to the Exchequer would be large. An increase of 10.5% to public sector pay will cost €4.58bn. However, when additional measures to aid those who are lower paid are added, it will bring the full cost close to €5bn. The total cost of the deal is expected to be in excess of €5 billion, according to Government estimates, with one senior figure warning that the Government side was at the limits of what it could offer.

Any stoppage would coincide with Ireland's hosting of the European Political Community summit in Dublin, which is expected to bring together around 50 European leaders. The demonstration will coincide with a major meeting of world leaders in the capital as part of Ireland's EU Presidency. The other rallies will be held in Cork, Limerick, Galway, Waterford, Sligo, Tullamore and Letterkenny.

Taoiseach Micheal Martin said this week's European meetings would go ahead, despite around 350 staff being set to be affected by a potential strike. He paid tribute to preparations by An Garda Siochana, the Defence Forces and the national cybersecurity centre. He said this week represents the largest ever security operation in the history of the State and that he was confident the events would be fruitful and productive.

For the public, the disruption would go well beyond the summit zone. Preparations for Thursday's strike, including school closures and the cancellation of thousands of hospital appointments, were continuing. Siptu told its members it was proceeding on the basis the strike would happen unless a deal was agreed, while work was continuing on confirming derogations for staff maintaining essential services, especially in the health sector.

There have been some concerns that a sense of an impending deal might undermine participation in Thursday's planned marches at eight venues around the country. However, Forsa said 45,000 members, almost half the total, had signed up to rallies. Forsa deputy general secretary Katie Morgan told members that until negotiators confirm whether an agreement has been established, plans for the strike and rallies must continue.

The previous pay agreement was worth 10.25% over two and a half years and expired at the end of June. Unions have said that they are looking for a better deal than the last agreement. The Government wants a national pay agreement that would enable it to continue to recruit teachers and nurses and special needs assistants, and many more public servants, gardai and so forth, within a sustainable budget.

Without agreement, Ireland faced the prospect of a second all-out public sector strike in as many months, following the October stoppage that saw ASTI and Forsa members picket, including in Mallow, Co Cork. Union sources said that unless a deal is approved by Wednesday morning, Ireland faces a second all-out public sector strike in as many months. Government sources insisted on Monday night that they remained hopeful a deal could be reached before it is too late to avert a strike, but accepted that the window is narrowing.

Pensions were reported as a potential stumbling block on Monday, alongside other non-pay matters that moved to the centre of Tuesday's WRC discussions. It is understood that non-pay matters are central to today's discussions. A number of issues are still to be finalised and pensions are believed to have been seen as a potential stumbling block on Monday.

The mood around the talks was mixed. One person close to the talks on the Government side said the mood music is better, while union sources were non-committal, saying the offer fell short of their expectations. Union sources said a strike could still be called off as late as Wednesday if a deal is reached, but there was no feeling of optimism on Monday night.

Speaking to reporters at Lough Derg on Monday morning, Taoiseach Micheal Martin said he was not calling it a "take it or leave it" offer from the Government's side, but rather "a very substantially improved offer". He said it meets all the criteria identified early on for resolving the issue. He said he genuinely doesn't believe there's a basis for strike action this week.

Mr Martin said the Government has expanded the public service over recent years and wants a sustainable budget for future recruitment. He said there is always a balance between pay and services and future development. He also described the offer as very, very fair in comments on Monday aimed at selling the improved terms to unions.

Speaking in Brussels, Tanaiste Simon Harris said he believed a deal between the Government and unions was "within reach". He said very significant progress has been made and urged everyone to make a last push to get agreement. He said any deal would provide certainty for workers, ensure a decent wage for a decent day's work and restore industrial peace.

On the union side, Mr Callinan said it is impossible to say when or if Thursday's strike will be called off. He said it all depends on how the day goes and how quickly agreement can be reached on outstanding matters. Ms Morgan told members that only if there is agreement at the Government Appointed Group could the parties return to the WRC and a deal be reached.

Céim a bhfuil súil léi: D’fhéadfadh an méid seo athrú.

It is understood the parties will meet at the WRC later this morning in an effort to conclude negotiations and reach a final agreement. As parties meet at the WRC, it is understood it will be with a view to concluding negotiations and reaching a final agreement. The sense politically is that this evening is the likely landing zone for a potential deal.

The political expectation is that Wednesday morning is the practical deadline after which it might be too late to stand down Thursday's action. One senior Government source said if there is no deal by Wednesday morning, it might be too late, while talks continue there is a chance. Both sides are hoping to use the WRC to finalise a new public service pay agreement if the overnight basis for resolution holds.

If agreement is reached, union processes will need to confirm whether an agreement has been established before strike and rally plans can be stood down. Until that confirmation comes, unions say strike planning must continue. If not, the 24-hour stoppage and eight lunchtime rallies will proceed during the summit week in Dublin.