On Tuesday 6 October, Simon Harris and Jack Chambers stand up in the Dáil and present Budget 2027. By the evening, every household in the country will be trying to work out one thing: what does it mean for me?
We built something to answer that. The DáilDex Budget 2027 tracker puts every key rate side by side, collects what the papers and economists expect with the exact quotes behind each claim, works out your take-home pay, and updates live on the day. This guide walks through it, and through the Budget itself.
The Budget in 60 seconds
- The size is set in July
The Summer Economic Statement fixed Budget 2027 at €8.5bn: €7bn of extra spending and €1.5bn of tax changes.
- Ministers fight over it
Through September each minister pushes for money, and the details leak. That's where the predictions below come from.
- Announced on 6 October
Simon Harris sets out the tax changes and Jack Chambers the spending, in the Dáil, in the early afternoon.
- Then it becomes law
TDs vote that night on some measures. The rest is passed in the Finance Bill and Social Welfare Bill, mostly taking effect in January.
Out of every €10 in the package, about €8.20 goes on spending and €1.80 on tax cuts. The overall spending ceiling for 2027 is €125.5bn. Source: Summer Economic Statement 2026.
What's expected: the biggest predictions
In the weeks before a Budget, the details leak. We read the reporting from the Irish Times, the Irish Examiner, RTÉ and Davy and pulled out 20 specific predictions. Each comes with the exact words used and a link, and we mark how firmly the report put it. Here are the ones reported most firmly. Vote on whether each will happen; voting closes when Budget day starts.
2 widely expected4 likely
- Widely expected
The 20% tax band rises to at least €46,000
Up €2,000 from €44,000 for a single person. That is worth up to €400 a year to anyone earning €46,000 or more, and nothing to people earning under €44,000.
It looks like this cut-off point is going to rise by at least €2,000.
The Irish Times · 30 Septit is expected that the entry rate for the higher rate of tax will be increased to at least €46,000.
Irish Examiner, Louise Burne · 4 Oct
Will it happen? - Widely expected
USC stays, but the 2% band is nudged up
No abolition. The top of the 2% band, now €28,700, is expected to rise so someone on a new minimum wage doesn't pay the 3% rate.
The much-hated USC is going nowhere, but there could be slight changes to how much you pay.
Irish Examiner, Louise Burne · 4 OctOne certain change is that the entry point to the 3 per cent rate, now €28,700, will be increased a bit
The Irish Times · 30 Sept
Will it happen? - Likely
Band and credit changes worth €400 to €500 a year
Tax credits are also expected to rise, so lower earners gain too. Reports describe it as the first step towards a €50,000 band over several Budgets.
middle-income earners could be between €400 and €500 a year better off due to changes to both tax bands and credits.
Irish Examiner, Elaine Loughlin · 28 Septa multi-budget strategy to increase the entry point to the higher rate of tax to €50,000.
Irish Examiner, Elaine Loughlin · 28 Sept
Will it happen? - Likely
Pensions and welfare up €7.50 to €10 a week
Reports differ on the size. Last year's increase was €10 a week. Either figure would apply from January.
an increase of at least €7.50 across all social welfare payments, from pensions to those on jobseekers allowance, is anticipated.
Irish Examiner, Elaine Loughlin · 28 Septa figure of €10 a week, the same as the last budget, in now on the cards.
The Irish Times · 16 SeptThe Government is considering raising the weekly State pension by €7.50 as part of Budget 2027.
RTÉ News · 26 Sept
Will it happen? - Likely
Fuel Allowance up €5 to €43 a week
Paid to about 470,000 households over the colder months. A lump sum was also considered.
looks set to increase by €5 a week to €43.
The Irish Times · 16 SeptThe likely €5 increase in the fuel allowance and its potential extension into spring next year
RTÉ News, Fiachra Ó Cionnaith · 27 Sept
Will it happen? - Likely
A new cost-of-disability payment, possibly €500 a year
Promised in the Programme for Government. Reports suggest one or two lump sums a year, smaller than campaigners want.
The Government has long talked about introducing a cost of disability payment, which will now be announced on budget day.
Irish Examiner, Elaine Loughlin · 28 SeptIt looks likely to be €500 a year.
The Irish Times · 16 Sept
Will it happen?
See all 20 predictions, from minimum wage to cigarettes.
The warnings
Not everyone thinks an €8.5bn package is a good idea. The State's own budget watchdog and the ESRI have both warned against it, and the Government has answered back. In their own words:
“The Irish economy is performing strongly and does not need support from Budget 2027.”
Irish Fiscal Advisory CouncilThe State's independent budget watchdogIrish Fiscal Advisory Council · 25 Aug 2026“The actual budget package is likely to be much larger than what is announced on budget day.”
Irish Fiscal Advisory CouncilOn spending overrunsIrish Fiscal Advisory Council · 25 Aug 2026“This strikes us as being at odds with prudent fiscal management”
ESRIEconomic and Social Research InstituteThe Irish Times · 29 Sept 2026“we don't ignore their advice, but they're not the Government”
Simon HarrisTánaiste and Minister for Finance, responding to the Fiscal CouncilRTÉ News · 25 Aug 2026“cast-iron guarantee”
Micheál MartinTaoiseach, as reported by the Irish ExaminerIrish Examiner · 28 Sept 2026
What it could mean for your pay
The most reported change is a €2,000 rise in the 20% tax band, from €44,000 to €46,000. Here is what that alone would be worth to a single PAYE worker in 2027, worked out with the same calculator as the tracker. It's a scenario from press reports, not a decision, and tax credit changes could add to it.
| Salary | Take-home in 2027 | A month | If the band rises |
|---|---|---|---|
| €30,000 | €26,251 | €2,188 | No change |
| €45,000 | €36,943 | €3,079 | +€200 a year |
| €50,000 | €39,573 | €3,298 | +€400 a year |
| €70,000 | €50,096 | €4,175 | +€400 a year |
Notice who doesn't gain: anyone earning under €44,000 gets nothing from a wider band. That's why reports say tax credits are likely to rise too. PRSI goes the other way: it rose to 4.35% this month and rises again to 4.5% next October, whatever the Budget does. Try your own salary.
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What we built for Budget 2027
Everything is free, needs no account, and works on your phone.
There is also a page for every Budget topic, from tax and pay to housing, energy and education:
New in Dex: your personal Budget briefing
Dex, our AI guide to Irish politics, now has a Budget 2027 briefing. Tell it your situation, for example “I rent, earn €48,000 and have one child”, or type /budget, and it builds a card with your take-home pay, the rates that apply to you, and the predictions that affect you, each with its source. On Budget day it reads the confirmed figures and our published live updates, and it's told never to present a prediction as a decision.
How we keep it accurate
Current rates come from Revenue and Citizens Information. Budget 2027 figures go in only once they appear in the official Budget documents, and a test stops the site from showing one without an official source. Every prediction quote was checked word for word against the page it came from. Live updates are only stored when each figure appears in a quote from a page we actually read, and an editor reviews them before they go up.
If you spot something wrong, tell us and we'll correct it and say so.
Before you go: how well do you know the Budget?
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